So Primary Day is gone and went and here are Citizen Cosmo's Prediction Wrap. We did pretty good with a few, such as Mayor (where we within 1.2 points off the real tally) and the 7th Ward (within a crazy 0.2%):
MAYOR - The buzz index averages going into Primary Day had Jennings at 51.750%, Ellis at 41%, and undecideds at 7.250%. We predicted Jennings at 55 to Ellis at 45. The actual totals came in Jennings at 56.05% to Ellis's 43.94%, creating a index difference of 4.3003 points for Jennings and 2.9497 for Ellis. Under our prediction, we were off by 1.0503 points.
TREASURER - Index averages had Sheehan at 59.000%, Barnette at 37.917%, with 3.083% undecided. We predicted Sheehan at 59 to Barnette at 41. Totals came in at 62.77644% for Sheehan and 37.22356% for Barnette, resulting in a index average difference of 3.7764 points for Sheehan and -0.6931 for Barnette. Under our prediction, we were off by 3.7764 points.
AUDITOR (Absentees Awaiting) - We called this too close to call, with Engstrom at 47.250%, Shahinfar at 45.917%, t 6.750% undecided. We predicted Shahinfar at 52 to Engstrom at 48. Totals came in at 50.94817% for Engstrom and 49.05183% for Shahinfar, resulting in a difference of 3.6982 points for Engstrom and 3.1352 points for Shahinfar. Under our prediction, we were off by 2.9482 points.
COMMON COUNCIL PRESIDENT - Honestly, this could have fell either way, but we cannot express how shocked by the margin we were. We had McLaughlin at 50.500%, Ricchutti at 47.167%, with 2.333% undecided. We predicted McLaughlin at 54 to Ricchutti's 46. Actual totals came in at 60.78949% for McLaughlin to Ricchutti's 39.21051%, creating a index difference of -7.9562 points for Ricchutti and 10.2895 points for McLaughlin. Under our prediction, we were off by 6.7895 points.
WARD 10 - A real nail-biter, Golby was tracking at 50.417%, Scalzo at 46.583%, to an undecided 3.0%. With electioneering, among other primary day incidents abound, another one that could have easily been won by Scalzo. We predicted Golby at 54 to Scalzo's 46. Actual totals came in at 51.8847% for Golby and 48.1153% for Scalzo, creating an index difference of 1.4680 points for Golby and 1.5320 points for Scalzo. Under our prediction, we were off by 2.1153 points.
WARD 1 - Along with Treasurer and the 7th, we had Calsolaro tracking at 67.500% to Mannarino's 28.167% with 4.333% undecided. We predicted Calsolaro at 65 to Mannarino at 35. Actual totals came in with Calsolaro at 59.77654% to Mannarino's 40.22346%, creating an index difference of -7.7235 points for Calsolaro and 12.0568 for Mannarino (can't be right all the time). Under oure prediction, we were off by 5.2235 points.
WARD 7 - This one makes us proud. We had Fahey tracking at 60.500%, Tobin at 35.333%, and 4.167% undecided. We predicted Fahey at 60 to Tobin's 40. Actual totals came in at 60.16451% for Fahey and 39.83549% for Tobin, creating an index difference of -0.3355 points for Fahey and 4.5022 points for Tobin. Under our prediction, we were off by 0.1645 (take that SRI and Zogby!).
WARD 5 - A little weird this one, with Veronica Horne dropping out but still on the ballot. We had Jenkins-Cox tracking at 34.250%, Timmons at 28.417%, Horne at 26.750%, with 10.583% undecided. We predicted Jenkins-Cox 45, Timmons 35, and Horne 20. Actual totals came in at 40.57018% for Jenkins-Cox, 30.48246% for Timmons, and 28.94737% for Horne, creating index differences of 6.3202 points for Jenkins-Cox, 2.0658 points for Timmons, and 2.1974 for Horne. Under our prediction, we were off by -4.4298 for Jenkins-Cox, 8.9474 for Horne, and -4.5175 for Timmons.
WARD 11 - Three young men and a captain... the 11th ward was a mess if there were any. It was like the California recall gubernatorial race of 2003 - some legit candidates, one not so much (sorry my opinion came into this one, but indexing was still done fair and unbias). We called this too close to call, with Gucker tracking 25.250%, Konev 25.0%, Teff at 22.250%, Barnes at 13.083%, with a whopping 14.417% undecided. We predicted Gucker 30, Konev 26, Teff 25, and Barnes at 19. Actual totals came Konev at 36.41208%, Gucker 24.68917%, Teff 20.78153%, and Barnes at 18.11723%, creating index differences of 11.4121 for Konev, -0.5608 for Gucker, -1.4685 for Teff, and 5.0339 for Barnes, which allud to some sort of last minute pitch by Konev and Barnes worked in bringing in those undecideds. Under our predictions, we were 10.4121 points off for Konev, -5.3108 for Gucker, -4.2185 for Teff, and only -0.8828 for Barnes.
So there you have it, the election wrap up.
Next week, we will be doing weekly predictions of General Election matchups for Albany, New York, and Gloversville races.
The Inside Out of the Outside In.