The Inside Out of the Outside In.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Election Wrapup

So Primary Day is gone and went and here are Citizen Cosmo's Prediction Wrap. We did pretty good with a few, such as Mayor (where we within 1.2 points off the real tally) and the 7th Ward (within a crazy 0.2%):

MAYOR - The buzz index averages going into Primary Day had Jennings at 51.750%, Ellis at 41%, and undecideds at 7.250%. We predicted Jennings at 55 to Ellis at 45. The actual totals came in Jennings at 56.05% to Ellis's 43.94%, creating a index difference of 4.3003 points for Jennings and 2.9497 for Ellis. Under our prediction, we were off by 1.0503 points.

TREASURER - Index averages had Sheehan at 59.000%, Barnette at 37.917%, with 3.083% undecided. We predicted Sheehan at 59 to Barnette at 41. Totals came in at 62.77644% for Sheehan and 37.22356% for Barnette, resulting in a index average difference of 3.7764 points for Sheehan and -0.6931 for Barnette. Under our prediction, we were off by 3.7764 points.

AUDITOR (Absentees Awaiting) - We called this too close to call, with Engstrom at 47.250%, Shahinfar at 45.917%, t 6.750% undecided. We predicted Shahinfar at 52 to Engstrom at 48. Totals came in at 50.94817% for Engstrom and 49.05183% for Shahinfar, resulting in a difference of 3.6982 points for Engstrom and 3.1352 points for Shahinfar. Under our prediction, we were off by 2.9482 points.

COMMON COUNCIL PRESIDENT - Honestly, this could have fell either way, but we cannot express how shocked by the margin we were. We had McLaughlin at 50.500%, Ricchutti at 47.167%, with 2.333% undecided. We predicted McLaughlin at 54 to Ricchutti's 46. Actual totals came in at 60.78949% for McLaughlin to Ricchutti's 39.21051%, creating a index difference of -7.9562 points for Ricchutti and 10.2895 points for McLaughlin. Under our prediction, we were off by 6.7895 points.

WARD 10 - A real nail-biter, Golby was tracking at 50.417%, Scalzo at 46.583%, to an undecided 3.0%. With electioneering, among other primary day incidents abound, another one that could have easily been won by Scalzo. We predicted Golby at 54 to Scalzo's 46. Actual totals came in at 51.8847% for Golby and 48.1153% for Scalzo, creating an index difference of 1.4680 points for Golby and 1.5320 points for Scalzo. Under our prediction, we were off by 2.1153 points.

WARD 1 - Along with Treasurer and the 7th, we had Calsolaro tracking at 67.500% to Mannarino's 28.167% with 4.333% undecided. We predicted Calsolaro at 65 to Mannarino at 35. Actual totals came in with Calsolaro at 59.77654% to Mannarino's 40.22346%, creating an index difference of -7.7235 points for Calsolaro and 12.0568 for Mannarino (can't be right all the time). Under oure prediction, we were off by 5.2235 points.

WARD 7 - This one makes us proud. We had Fahey tracking at 60.500%, Tobin at 35.333%, and 4.167% undecided. We predicted Fahey at 60 to Tobin's 40. Actual totals came in at 60.16451% for Fahey and 39.83549% for Tobin, creating an index difference of -0.3355 points for Fahey and 4.5022 points for Tobin. Under our prediction, we were off by 0.1645 (take that SRI and Zogby!).

WARD 5 - A little weird this one, with Veronica Horne dropping out but still on the ballot. We had Jenkins-Cox tracking at 34.250%, Timmons at 28.417%, Horne at 26.750%, with 10.583% undecided. We predicted Jenkins-Cox 45, Timmons 35, and Horne 20. Actual totals came in at 40.57018% for Jenkins-Cox, 30.48246% for Timmons, and 28.94737% for Horne, creating index differences of 6.3202 points for Jenkins-Cox, 2.0658 points for Timmons, and 2.1974 for Horne. Under our prediction, we were off by -4.4298 for Jenkins-Cox, 8.9474 for Horne, and -4.5175 for Timmons.

WARD 11 - Three young men and a captain... the 11th ward was a mess if there were any. It was like the California recall gubernatorial race of 2003 - some legit candidates, one not so much (sorry my opinion came into this one, but indexing was still done fair and unbias). We called this too close to call, with Gucker tracking 25.250%, Konev 25.0%, Teff at 22.250%, Barnes at 13.083%, with a whopping 14.417% undecided. We predicted Gucker 30, Konev 26, Teff 25, and Barnes at 19. Actual totals came Konev at 36.41208%, Gucker 24.68917%, Teff 20.78153%, and Barnes at 18.11723%, creating index differences of 11.4121 for Konev, -0.5608 for Gucker, -1.4685 for Teff, and 5.0339 for Barnes, which allud to some sort of last minute pitch by Konev and Barnes worked in bringing in those undecideds. Under our predictions, we were 10.4121 points off for Konev, -5.3108 for Gucker, -4.2185 for Teff, and only -0.8828 for Barnes.

So there you have it, the election wrap up.

Next week, we will be doing weekly predictions of General Election matchups for Albany, New York, and Gloversville races.

Stay tuned!

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Election Prediction

As promised on the Times Union Local Politics blog yesterday, here are my calculated predictions for who will be on top and who'll be heading back to Oxford Road (oops, did I say that outloud?).

I've been tracking certain candidates from September 4th, resulting in their averaged buzz index poll (calculated from lawn signs, word of mouth, inside intel, last primary numbers, progressive support, machine support, etc.):

MAYOR - With an average spread of 10.75 points, Jerry Jennings is leading Corey Ellis 51.750% to 41.0%, with 7.250% undecided. Barring any further controversy as well as confusion at the polls, this should be a Mr. Jennings win at 55-45. Mr. Ellis will do at least 10 points higher than Archie Goodbee, Jennings' 2005 opponent, who did 32 points. Anything closer, even with Jerry winning, will ultimately be considered a loss for the machine and will eliminate any "mandate" to be developed. --- JENNINGS 55, ELLIS 45

TREASURER - Average spread for this race has been 21.08 points, with newcomer Kathy Sheehan landsliding her way against Betty Barnette, 59.0% to 37.917% with 3.083% undecided. Unless Ms. Barnette proves some sort of new confidence in her ability to run the city's finances between now and 9PM that will make up for years of incompetence, Sheehan will win 59-41. Ms. Sheehan has run a fairly tight campaign and significantly recieved a boost once members of Shawn Morris for Albany joined aboard, strengthening what was a 7 point lead in July to what we believe is now at 15-17 points ahead. --- SHEEHAN 59, BARNETTE 41

AUDITOR - The Auditor and Council President races have been the closest, most likely due to no incumbency involved. The average spread for this is a surprising 1.333 points, with regional planner Leif Engstrom ahead by 47.250% to former Gillibrand aide Darius Shahinfar's 45.917%, with 6.750% undecided. Whereas strength was higher for Engstrom before the Indy Party massacre, it's honestly a race where it could tip either way. We believe that, even though he has declined most endorsements, Shahinfar will very closely eek this out due to name recognition (2008 Democratic Congressional Primary), 52-48. --- SHAHINFAR 52, ENGSTROM 48.

COMMON COUNCIL PRESIDENT - Arguably the nastiest race of them all (yes, worse than the 11th), with a spread of 3.333 points, we have Carolyn McLaughlin ahead 50.5% to Lenny Ricchutti's 47.167%, with 2.333% undecided. McLaughlin was ahead in July by at least 7 points as well as has name recognition for being on the council for 12 years. Conversely, Ricchutti has developed a cult-like fan base from his days with PAL, making him a formidable force. Still, actual council experience will win this out and McLaughlin winning 54-46. --- MCLAUGHLIN 54, RICCHUTTI, 46.

And now for council races...

WARD 1 - Dominick Calsolaro will fully landslide this one against Scott Mannarino, with tracking trends at 67.50%, 28.167% (Mannarino), with 4.333% undecided. Expect Calsolaro at 65 to Mannarino's 35. --- CALSOLARO 65, MANNARINO 35.

WARD 3 - This may be a 2005 Corey Ellis situation, but from the looks of it, it's highly unlikely. Ron Bailey has been tracking at 53.50% to Lisa Feaster's 43.833% to 2.667% undecided. Expect Bailey at 55 to Feaster's 45. --- BAILEY 55, FEASTER 45.

WARD 5 - With the absence of Veronica Horne, Jackie Jenkins-Cox and Willard Timmons have been eating away at what would have been a Horne victory. Current trends have Jenkins-Cox at 34.250%, Timmons at 28.417%, and Horne still at 26.750% (she's still on the ballot), with 10.583% undecided. Expect Jenkins-Cox to win this, with Timmons and Horne following, 45, 35, 20. --- JENKINS-COX 45, TIMMONS 35, HORNE 20.

WARD 7 - Similar to the 1st Ward, Cathy Fahey will have no issue here. Trends have Fahey at 60.5% to Susan Tobin's 35.333%, with 4.167% undecided. Fahey at 60, Tobin at 40. --- FAHEY 60, TOBIN 40.

WARD 10 - Only twenty short years ago did a young restauranteur named Jimmy Scalzo oust a 20 year incumbent due to ineffectual representation and by some serious grass roots campaigning. How 20 years can make a serious difference... Leah Golby has been tracking 50.417% to Scalzo's 46.583%, with 3.000% undecided with a spread of 3.888 points. Golby will win this, 54-46. --- GOLBY 54, SCALZO 46.

WARD 11 - The most intense race of them all, for what was Jerry Jennings' old seat as well as the most socioeconomically diverse district in Albany. Three young men and a captain entered this race, all with promise as well as determined to represent real change in their ward, currently represented by Glen Casey. You have Anton Konev, who has worked with Corey Ellis on Albany for Obama last year; Ken Barnes ("the captain"), who represents long-term residents with a more conservative edge; Justin Teff, attorney and ward leader; and Luke Gucker, community advocate and whose the second version of Dave Lussier (2005 11th ward candidate and 2007 county legislature candidate).

Tracking has Gucker at 25.250%, Konev at 25.000%, Teff at 22.250%, and Barnes at 13.083%, with 14.417% undecided. A late night push for Barnes will actually work in this case, but not enough to claim victory. Gucker, due to his team of warriors and Konev, due to his team of one, will be the real race. Teff, even as a ward leader, we don't believe will claim victory here due to machine pull isn't that strong in the 11th. Gucker at 30, Konev at 26, Teff at 25, and Barnes at 19. There's just more support visibly for Gucker within the ward, compared to Konev's "Facebook-wide" campaign for a city seat. --- GUCKER 30, KONEV 26, TEFF 25, BARNES 19.